Blog - RegionTrack

Pic-of-the-Week: Weak Gasoline Sales Aid Consumers (10/20/2014)

Weak Gasoline Sales Weighing on Retail ActivityÂ but Aiding Consumers.Â Retail sales at gasoline stations have remained stuck in a holding pattern since early 2011 at about $45 billion per month.Â Strong domestic crude production coupled with only a modest rebound in vehicle miles driven continueÂ to put steady downward pressure on gasoline prices, and, subsequently, total purchases. Measured as a share of all retail sales, gasoline station sales have declined steadily from just belowÂ 12% in early 2011 to only aboutÂ a 10% share currently.

Pic-of-the-Week: Has the Shift From Coal to Natural Gas Stalled? (10/06/2014)

Has the Shift From Coal to Natural Gas in Electricity Production Stalled?Â Just ten years ago, coal was used to generate 50% of U.S. electricity while natural gas held only an 18% share. TossÂ in the shale gas revolutionÂ and move forward to early 2012Â andÂ you have both coal and natural gas producing 32% of U.S. power each. It appeared natural gas was well on its way to replacing much of the coal-fired production in the U.S.

However, our pic-of-the-week illustratesÂ thatÂ since early 2012 the shift has taken a clear short-term breather. Coal has made a small comeback and is now closer to 40% of total production. Natural gas has eased back a bit to just under a 30% share. Is the shift from coal to natural gas over?

Pic-of-the-Week: U.S. Crude Output Growing 4X Faster than Nat Gas (09/29/2014)

September 28, 2014
mcsnead
Pic of the Week, Uncategorized

U.S. Crude Output Growing Four Times Faster than Natural Gas. The pace of growth in U.S. crudeÂ oilÂ output isÂ nothing short of remarkable. Oil output has risen at a 16.1% annualized pace sinceÂ the beginning of the current cycle inÂ July 2011. Total oil production is up almost 60% in three short years. Our pic-of-the-week shows that oil is also growing four times faster thanÂ the 4% annual growth rate of natural gas output since its cycle began in January 2006. For comparison, natural gas output is up roughly 40% in 8+ years.

Pic-of-the-Week: Nearly All New Jobs Being Created are Full-Time (09/15/2014)

September 15, 2014
mcsnead
Pic of the Week, Uncategorized

NEARLY ALL NET NEW JOBS CREATED IN THE RECOVERY ARE FULL-TIME. Our pic-of-the-week highlights the differing trends in full-time andÂ part-time job creation in the recession and recovery. The U.S. economy has added more than 8 million jobs so far in the job expansionÂ that began in January 2010,Â and nearly all of the net new jobs are full-time. Part-time employment surged during the recession but has not contributed to job growth in the recovery.

Yes, Falling Gasoline Prices Can Easily Sway Overall Retail Activity

The string of weak retail sales reports in the first four months of 2015 are not an indication of slowing overall economic activity.Â Instead, recent weakness in the retail dataÂ merely reflects theÂ steep fallÂ in sales at gasoline stations since November 2014. In ourÂ pic-of-the-week, retail sales minus gasoline station sales continues to showÂ a very steady uptrend, even in the most recentÂ data.