Fed Funds futures continue to point toward a coming rate hike but give it only a 24% chance of happening at the September FOMC meeting. The full profile of implied probabilities of a Fed rate hike derived from CME Fed Funds futures are detailed in the chart below. Fed Funds futures suggest a two-thirds probability [...]
Timeline of Economic Policy & Activity (1960-2012) [pdf] An outstanding economist, Kate Watkins, at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City shared with me a graphic that is particularly helpful in understanding the long-run patterns and interactions between economic activity and policy decisions in the U.S..
Had the great pleasure of taking a trip yesterday to Williston, North Dakota to see firsthand the economic activity underlying the development of the Bakken oil formation. It was an amazing sight, one I suspect is typical of the early oil and gas booms that reshaped areas of Pennsylvania, California, Texas, and Oklahoma. [...]