Oct 292015

Currently, Oklahoma has the distinction of having the largest share of total household earnings* coming directly from the oil and gas industry – an astounding 13.9% for all of 2014. In fact, Oklahoma now has the highest share ever posted by a state in the modern energy era, with Wyoming’s 13.5% share in 1982 ranking a close second. Continue reading »

Sep 102015

Fed Funds futures continue to point toward a coming rate hike but give it only a 24% chance of happening at the September FOMC meeting.

The full profile of implied probabilities of a Fed rate hike derived from CME Fed Funds futures are detailed in the chart below. Fed Funds futures suggest a two-thirds probability that rates increase by the January meeting early next year. Continue reading »

Sep 082015
 September 8, 2015  Graphic, Pic of the Week Tagged with:  No Responses »

While recessions seem to last forever, expansions tend to slip by all too quickly. The current expansion is no exception in that the past 6 years of economic growth seem to have passed rather quickly and quietly. Our pic-of-the-week highlights the relative age of the current expansion, now at 74 months and running.  Continue reading »

Aug 122015
 August 12, 2015  Pic of the Week Tagged with: ,  No Responses »

Layoffs in the oil and gas sector are now clearly weighing on overall employment in the top-tier energy-producing states. Our pic-of-the-week illustrates the sharp slowdown in job growth in the energy states relative to the non-energy states in just the past six months.  In sharp contrast to the strong labor market conditions enjoyed in most other states,  Continue reading »