Sep 102015

Fed Funds futures continue to point toward a coming rate hike but give it only a 24% chance of happening at the September FOMC meeting.

The full profile of implied probabilities of a Fed rate hike derived from CME Fed Funds futures are detailed in the chart below. Fed Funds futures suggest a two-thirds probability that rates increase by the January meeting early next year. Continue reading »

Sep 082015
 September 8, 2015  Graphic, Pic of the Week Tagged with:  No Responses »

While recessions seem to last forever, expansions tend to slip by all too quickly. The current expansion is no exception in that the past 6 years of economic growth seem to have passed rather quickly and quietly. Our pic-of-the-week highlights the relative age of the current expansion, now at 74 months and running.  Continue reading »

Aug 122015
 August 12, 2015  Pic of the Week Tagged with: ,  No Responses »

Layoffs in the oil and gas sector are now clearly weighing on overall employment in the top-tier energy-producing states. Our pic-of-the-week illustrates the sharp slowdown in job growth in the energy states relative to the non-energy states in just the past six months.  In sharp contrast to the strong labor market conditions enjoyed in most other states,  Continue reading »

Jul 092015

The U.S. drilling rig count is now down 55% since September 2014. The decline has reached 60% in both Texas and North Dakota.

Our pic-of-the-week highlights changes in the latest data that suggest we may be getting much closer to a near-term bottom in the rig count. Most importantly, the overall  Continue reading »

Jun 212015

Oklahoma’s crude oil producers are expected to experience a 38.1% drop in revenue from crude oil production in 2015. In dollar terms, this reflects a $4.35 billion swing from the record $11.4 billion in crude oil revenue produced in 2014. Our pic of the week illustrates both the amount and value of crude oil produced annually in Oklahoma since 1981.

Continue reading »