Fed Funds futures continue to point toward a coming rate hike but give it only a 24% chance of happening at the September FOMC meeting.
The full profile of implied probabilities of a Fed rate hike derived from CME Fed Funds futures are detailed in the chart below. Fed Funds futures suggest a two-thirds probability that rates increase by the January meeting early next year.
While recessions seem to last forever, expansions tend to slip by all too quickly. The current expansion is no exception in that the past 6 years of economic growth seem to have passed rather quickly and quietly. Our pic-of-the-week highlights the relative age of the current expansion, now at 74 months and running.Â
There is surprisingly little data on the topic. We provided an answer to this question in completing a recent project on child care at the state level for the Committee for Economic Development (ced.org). What did we find? At the state level,…
Oklahoma’s crude oil producers are expected to experience a 38.1% drop in revenue from crude oil production in 2015. In dollar terms, this reflects a $4.35 billion swing from the record $11.4 billion in crude oil revenue produced in 2014. Our pic of the week illustrates both the amount and value of crude oil produced annually in Oklahoma since 1981.
The ongoing drop in the number of drilling rigs searching for crude oil now exceeds the collapse in natural gas rigs suffered back in the 2008-2009 period. Our pic of the week illustrates the similarity in size and pace between the respective oil and gas drilling collapses. Crude rigs are offÂ