RegionTrack Pic-of-the-Week:
The U.S. Department of Energy’s latest adjustment to its U.S. crude oil outlook reflects the confounding set of conditions driving the oil markets. Domestic oil production is now expected to fall steadily through
The latest outlook on domestic crude production from the U.S. Department of Energy is not encouraging. Domestic oil production is not expected to bottom until September 2016.
Currently, Oklahoma has the distinction of having the largest share of total household earnings* coming directly from the oil and gas industry – an astounding 13.9% for all of 2014. In fact, Oklahoma now has the highest share ever posted by a state in the modern energy era, with Wyoming’s 13.5% share in 1982 ranking a close second.
Fed Funds futures continue to point toward a coming rate hike but give it only a 24% chance of happening at the September FOMC meeting.
The full profile of implied probabilities of a Fed rate hike derived from CME Fed Funds futures are detailed in the chart below. Fed Funds futures suggest a two-thirds probability that rates increase by the January meeting early next year.
While recessions seem to last forever, expansions tend to slip by all too quickly. The current expansion is no exception in that the past 6 years of economic growth seem to have passed rather quickly and quietly. Our pic-of-the-week highlights the relative age of the current expansion, now at 74 months and running.